- The pair rises against weaker sterling across the board.
- EUR/GBP: As long as EUR/GBP remains below 0.8530, the cross has a downward bias.
EUR/GBP regains the 0.8500 level, rising to fresh two-week highs by as much as 0.12% during the US session, trading at 0.8506 at the time of writing. Because three central banks will review their current monetary policy conditions, the market’s mood will remain moderate. This, in turn, sparked a massive sell-off of risky assets such as the yen, which the GBP/USD pair was threatening to break below 1.3600 at the time of publication.
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The Bank of Central Europe (BCE) reviewed its monetary policy position on Wednesday. The BCE decided to keep the types unchanged. Moreover, despite rising inflationary pressures, with the IPC of the eurozone expanding by 4.1 percent, the central bank maintained a cautious stance, delaying investors’ plans for a stock market rally until the end of 2023.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) meets this week to discuss monetary policy, with investors expecting a 15-basis-point rate hike on November 4. A rate hike in the United Kingdom would be the first since the outbreak. It also reacts to rising inflation measurements, as noted by Michael Saunders and Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England.
Announcing the October Eurozone PMIs on the macroeconomic front. The Markit manufacturing PMI in Germany came in at 57.8, much below the 58.2 forecast. In addition, the Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 58.3, which was lower than analysts’ expectations of 58.5.
Supply chain bottlenecks and logistical challenges caused the production to be hampered despite lower-than-expected numbers. A scarcity of truck drivers, in addition to the issues stated above, continued to wreak havoc on the manufacturing sector.
The EUR/GBP pair has a downward bias
The directionless daily moving averages (DMA) placed above the spot price indicate that the EUR/GBP pair has a downward bias. The pair is reaching the junction of the 50 and 100 DMA around the 0.8520-40 level at the time of publication, which would act as strong resistance for EUR buyers. The relative strength indicator (RSI) is 54 points higher, indicating a positive divergence from the price action.
EUR/GBP sellers will need to keep the market below the September 16 low of 0.8500 to extend the decline. In such case, EUR sellers may be able to send the pair back below 0.8402, which is the 2021 low.
A daily closing above 0.8530 would be required for EUR/GBP buyers to reaffirm their bullish leaning. In that case, the 50 DMA at 0.8588 would be the next line of defense.